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| Registros recuperados: 17 | |
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| Hutchings, Timothy R.; Nordblom, Thomas L.. |
| This study analyses the financial risk faced by representative mixed-enterprise farm businesses in four regions of south-eastern Australia. It uses discrete stochastic programming to optimise the ten-year cash flow margins produced by these farms, operating three alternative farming systems. Monte Carlo simulation analysis is used to produce a risk profile for each scenario, derived from multiple runs of this optimised model, randomised for commodity prices and decadal growing season rainfall since 1920. This analysis shows that the performance of the enterprise mixes at each site is characterised more by the level of variability of outcomes than by the mean values of financial outputs. It demonstrates that relying on mean values for climate and prices... |
| Tipo: Article |
Palavras-chave: Farm management; Financial risk; Climate risk; Price risk; Variability; Farm Management. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120908 |
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| Tarasov, Arthur. |
| Modern methods of quantitative risk analysis, specifically value-at-risk and expected shortfall approach, provide comprehensive and coherent risk evaluation throughout entire distribution of outcomes and can take agricultural business from the realm of uncertainty to specific, quantified risks. Monte Carlo simulation with autocorrelation of standard deviation shows the best results in risk modeling and is used for this research. The analysis showed that production risk is systemic within climatic regions of Ukraine with coefficients of correlation ranging from 0.25 to 0.85. Yield correlation among crops in several oblasts is low to negative, creating opportunities for diversification. However, positive price-yield correlation is dominant for agricultural... |
| Tipo: Article |
Palavras-chave: Production risk; Price risk; Value-at-risk in agriculture; Expected shortfall; Production Economics; Risk and Uncertainty; GA; IN. |
| Ano: 2011 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/120240 |
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| Muth, Mary K.; Liu, Yanyan; Koontz, Stephen R.; Lawrence, John D.. |
| Information on typical differences in prices and price risk (as measured by the variances of prices) across marketing arrangements aids fed cattle producers in making choices about methods to use for selling fed cattle to beef packers. This information is also useful for policy discussions on merits and drawbacks of alternative marketing arrangements. As part of the congressionally mandated Livestock and Meat Marketing Study, we investigated differences in prices and price risk for fed cattle cash market and alternative marketing arrangements. The modeling approach, which is similar to a hedonic model, controls for differences in cattle quality and delivery month and accounts for the within- and across-week correlation in prices. The analysis uses a recent... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Alternative marketing arrangements; Fed cattle; Prices; Price volatility; Price risk; Hedonic. |
| Ano: 2007 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/37578 |
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| Fortenbery, T. Randall. |
| This paper examines three invited papers focused on commodity prices. Public responses to high nominal commodity prices and perceived increases in price risk have ranged from attempts to assign blame, attempts to change contracting arrangements, and development of public policy that ‘‘protects’’ the market from future occurrences of unacceptable behavior. Interestingly, a result of increased commodity price volatility has suggested that futures markets no longer ‘‘work.’’ This is ironic given that futures markets initially came into existence as tools for managing the negative impacts of commodity price risk. In response to perceptions of market failure some are looking for strategies to regulate the who and how of futures trading. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Futures markets; Hedging; Price risk; Risk management; Speculation; Agribusiness; Agricultural Finance; Marketing; Risk and Uncertainty; G13; Q11; Q13; Q14. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/53084 |
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| Estavillo, Julio; Aguado, Salomon; Bielza, Maria; Garrido, Alberto; Sumpsi, Jose Maria. |
| En 2003 y 2004, se ofreció por primera vez en España un seguro que protege contra la caída de precios en origen de un producto agrícola. Se trata de un seguro de rentas lanzado con carácter piloto para las producciones de patata de media estación y patata tardía en cinco provincias españolas (Álava, Burgos, La Rioja, León y Valladolid). El objetivo de este trabajo es describir las características del seguro y realizar una evaluación preliminar de las campañas en que ha funcionado. Se parte de una aproximación conceptual a los instrumentos de gestión de riesgos de mercado, en cuyo contexto se enmarca el presente seguro. Posteriormente se explica el modelo de precios empleado para definir los precios de referencia del mercado y las primas, contrastando la... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Price risk; Agricultural insurance; Revenue insurance; Potato market; Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/28767 |
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| Brown, Mark G.; Lee, Jonq-Ying. |
| A model is developed to explain Florida citrus planting levels by variety. The varietal choice is based on the expected prices and price variances/covariances of the varieties under consideration. Overall planting returns are maximized for a given level of price risk. The model's price coefficients are similar to those of the Theil and Barten Rotterdam demand model. As in the Rotterdam model, both absolute and relative price coefficient specifications are considered, allowing an examination of restrictions related to the price risk. The empirical analysis considers two restricted specifications -- a varietal independence model, based on the assumption that only the price variances are important for predicting planting levels, and a group independence... |
| Tipo: Report |
Palavras-chave: Planting decision; Florida citrus; Price risk; Expected returns; Demand and Price Analysis; Farm Management. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/52880 |
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| Peterson, Hikaru Hanawa; Tomek, William G.. |
| The choice of deflators of commodity prices can change the time-series properties of the original series. This is a specific application of the general phenomenon that various kinds of data transformations can create spurious cycles that did not exist in the original data. Different empirical models of expectations result from nominal and various deflated series that have distinct time-series properties, and these models, in turn, produce varying estimates of supply response and measures of price risk. The foregoing is illustrated by annual grain prices, monthly milk prices, and a milk supply analysis. Annual prices of corn and soybeans, for example, appear to vary around a constant mean, but when deflated by general price indexes such as the CPI, the... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Deflating; Time-series analysis; Price expectations; Price risk; Supply analysis; Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2000 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18944 |
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| Figiel, Szczepan; Hamulczuk, Mariusz; Klimkowski, Cezary. |
| In this paper we use weekly milling wheat price series for nine selected EU countries to evaluate levels and components of volatility in the period from July 2004 to April 2011 and to examine how sensitive the results can be to spatial aggregation of the price data. The prices were analyzed in levels and logarithmic rate of returns. To asses price risk, apart from basic measures of price variability, the price series were decomposed using multiplicative model in order to determine shares of seasonal and random components in the total variance of the prices. We also applied ARMAX model to separate the stochastic components of the price series to properly evaluate real price risk exposure and tested for ARCH and GARCH effects. We found considerable... |
| Tipo: Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Wheat prices; Volatility; Price risk; Data aggregation; Risk and Uncertainty; C22. |
| Ano: 2012 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/122549 |
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| Riley, John Michael; Anderson, John D.. |
| Risk is an inevitable part of agricultural production and all producers face various forms of risk. This study used the subjective price expectations and price distributions of survey participants to determine how producer’s expectations compare with that of the market. Data used for this study were gathered through survey responses from Mississippi State University Extension meeting and workshop participants. Individual respondent’s discreet stated price and price distribution information was fitted to a continuous distribution and an implied mean and standard deviation was determined. This was compared to market price and price risk data. Participants largely over-estimated price. Individual volatilities resulting from each fitted distribution were lower... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Price risk; Price perception; Subjective probability elicitation; Production Economics; Q13. |
| Ano: 2009 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/46865 |
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| Harrison, R. Wes. |
| Stochastic simulation is used to analyze the effects of weather and output price risks on feeder cattle backgrounding systems common to the mid-south region of the United States. The results show that backgrounding systems beginning in the fall and ending from April to late August are associated with higher expected returns relative to summer backgrounding. However, winter backgrounding is associated with greater overall risk relative to summer backgrounding. Stochastic dominance analysis indicated that slightly risk averse backgrounders prefer both winter and summer baskgrounding but summer backgrounding is preferred by strongly risk averse decision makers. |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Feeder cattle; Weather risk; Price risk; Stochastic dominance; Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries; Productivity Analysis. |
| Ano: 1997 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/90425 |
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| Visit Limsombunchai; Sanit Kao-ian. |
| Objectives of this study were to investigate the cost and return to farmers on their corn production classified by varieties in Tak Fa district, Nakhon Sawan province in 2009 crop year. Out of 122 farm samples, 75, 13, 19 and 15 farms were found using variety A, B, C and others, respectively. The results showed that most of the farms had a similar production pattern. In addition, it was found that variety B had the highest cost of production, average yield, revenue and net profit (3,667.3 Baht/Rai 1,112.9 Kg./Rai 4,218.0 Baht/Rai and 550.7 Baht/Rai, respectively). Furthermore, the results indicated that variety C had the lowest yield risk while variety B had the lowest price risk. The study suggested that variety A was appropriate for the risk adverse... |
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Palavras-chave: Corn seed; Return to farmers; Yield risk; Price risk; ข้าวโพดเลี้ยงสัตว์; การผลิต; ปัจจัยการผลิต; พันธุ์; เมล็ดพันธุ์; ต้นทุน; ผลตอบแทน; รายได้; กำไร; ผลผลิต; ราคา; ความเสี่ยง; จ.นครสวรรค์ อ.ตากฟ้า. |
| Ano: 2010 |
URL: http://anchan.lib.ku.ac.th/agnet/handle/001/4689 |
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| Registros recuperados: 17 | |
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